Keller @ Large: Why Sununu's endorsement could be windfall for Haley's campaign
BOSTON - With the New Hampshire primary a little more than a month away, one GOP presidential hopeful has received a big endorsement.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu has thrown his support behind former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley tonight. (Disclosure: a close family member of the author's works for the Haley campaign.)
Will the endorsement of the popular Sununu add voters to Haley's column and turn an apparent rout into a race? Perhaps. But its real value lies in subtraction. If losing the Sununu endorsement he coveted pushes former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie closer to the exit, it could be a windfall for the Haley campaign.
In the most recent Monmouth University/Washington Post poll of New Hampshire Republicans, former President Donald Trump dominates among the 55% who believe his false claim the last election was stolen, with more than seven in ten backing his restoration.
But among the 38% who think President Joe Biden won in 2020 fair and square, Trump draws just 11% while Haley and Christie combined pull a solid majority.
Haley could consolidate the non-Trump vote and still lose to the former president in New Hampshire. But keep in mind, the winner in New Hampshire isn't always seen as the winner.
In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson won the primary, but his weakness was exposed by Senator Eugene McCarthy who came within seven points. And in 1992, former Senator Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire by more than eight points, but it was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton who got the bounce by rallying to finish second.
A lot has to go right for Haley to make this a race. But one of the foremost experts on the primary says there's a plausible scenario for it.
"If she comes out of Iowa a surprisingly strong second-place winner...with Chris Sununu by her side and maybe with Chris Christie by her side at Manchester airport that Tuesday morning, that's when there could be a whole new dynamic that plays out over the last week in New Hampshire," says University of New Hampshire Prof. Dante Scala, an expert on the primary.
Professor Scala guesses Haley would need to finish within single digits of Trump in New Hampshire to really make it a race, and while anything is possible, color me skeptical.
The more the case against Trump is made by critics, the legal system, and his own social media posts, the more Republicans seem to back him.
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